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Spatio-temporal modelling of wind speed variations and extremes in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico

Journal article
Authors Igor Rychlik
Wengang Mao
Published in Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Volume 135
Issue 3-4
Pages 921-944
ISSN 0177-798X
Publication year 2019
Published at Department of Mathematical Sciences
Pages 921-944
Language en
Links https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-...
Subject categories Ocean and River Engineering, Marine Engineering, Probability Theory and Statistics

Abstract

© 2018 The Author(s) The wind speed variability in the North Atlantic has been successfully modelled using a spatio-temporal transformed Gaussian field. However, this type of model does not correctly describe the extreme wind speeds attributed to tropical storms and hurricanes. In this study, the transformed Gaussian model is further developed to include the occurrence of severe storms. In this new model, random components are added to the transformed Gaussian field to model rare events with extreme wind speeds. The resulting random field is locally stationary and homogeneous. The localized dependence structure is described by time- and space-dependent parameters. The parameters have a natural physical interpretation. To exemplify its application, the model is fitted to the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data set. The model is applied to compute long-term wind speed distributions and return values, e.g., 100- or 1000-year extreme wind speeds, and to simulate random wind speed time series at a fixed location or spatio-temporal wind fields around that location.

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