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Scenario-Analysis of Land Use Conflicts Related To Climate-Change, Development and Conservation on the Falsterbo Peninsula in Vellinge Municipality

Rapport
Författare Andrea Morf
Robert Ekberg
Karl Bruckmeier
Per Knutsson
Rickard Näsström
Förlag University of Gothenburg
Förlagsort Göteborg
Publiceringsår 2012
Publicerad vid Institutionen för globala studier, humanekologi
Språk en
Ämnesord Climate change, scenario analysis, natural resource conflicts, conflict management, integrated coastal zone management, spatial planning
Ämneskategorier Miljövetenskap, Multidisciplinär geovetenskap, Empirisk konfliktforskning, Fysisk planläggning

Sammanfattning

A whole bundle of conflicts arising on the Falsterbo peninsula in Vellinge municipality, at the urban fringe of Malmö metropolitan area in relation to management and mitigation of climate change have been the focus of this deliverable. The flat, sandy peninsula on the SW-corner of Sweden is highly attractive are for human residency and recreation at the same time as it is highly valuable for cultural and nature conservation reasons. Morover, it is highly exposed to weather and climate. Discussions on how to address climate change related problems such as erosion and sea-level rise have given rise to a whole bundle of new environmental- and user conflicts and old conflicts in new shapes. These are here analysed from a spatial land-use perspective. The methods used include DPSIR-analyis, factor analysis, scenario building, backcasting, based on extrapolations of land-uses and population in relation to the different scenarios. Based on a DPSIR analysis using documents and earlier work in WP 2 and 4, factor analysis, backcasting using both qualitative, spatial and numeric aspects have been performed and specified in the form of GIS-maps and analytical tables using a number of easily available indicators for land-use change. Three scenarios have been created to analyse potential land use conflicts and alternative management strategies: a) MIX: a combination of development/defence and conservation/retreat (basing on municipal proposals in Vellinge’s municipal comprehensive plan 2010); b) DEV (development): a development focused alternative, where residency and jobs and protection against sea level rise is in focus; and c) ECO (ecology and conservation): with focus on retreat from the most exposed areas. Each scenario leads to specific types of conflicts. The most important conflicts to be expected with sea level rise are related to densification of attractive detached house areas and historically interesting townscapes, building of dams in relation to overlapping different kinds of conservation interests that partially collide, and behavioral changes and economic effects especially if a retreat strategy is being chosen. Last but not least, the case raises also a dilemma in relation to the consumption of productive agricultural land, which during the last decades of increasingly open markets, cheap transports, and strong nature protection policy in European countries has come out of focus. The scenarios also include different management strategies: the ECO-scenario requires most pro-active behavioral change work, followed by the MIX-scenario, whereas an important characteristic of the DEV-scenario is the procrastination of problems and conflicts to the future. Conclusions are made both in relation to the scenarios and to the methodology used. The conflict potential is high with measures forcing people to move or change behavior. Conflict mitigation possibilities vary with regard to the basic assumptions in the 3 scenarios and the local conditions. Conclusions with regard to methodology include that GIS can be an interesting tool for scenario work with conflict analysis- and management in mind, but that it is important to keep things simple for understandability for stakeholders if used as a process tool and not mere research. Comparisons with other scenarios in SECOA may be difficult because of the very specific local situations and assumptions made in each scenario. Besides some general topical criteria and suggestions for methods, the selection of cases and collection data has been ad-hoc driven by interesting problems to analyse in specific cases and end-user contexts. A multiple case study design for direct comparison of mappings and especially quantitative data requires a beforehand overall-design. This is especially valid in relation to quantifications and percentages and the comparability of parameters selected as bases for these.

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