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Key criteria influencing the choice of Arctic shipping: a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model

Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift
Författare P. H. Tseng
Kevin Cullinane
Publicerad i Maritime Policy & Management
Volym 45
Nummer/häfte 4
Sidor 422-438
ISSN 0308-8839
Publiceringsår 2018
Publicerad vid Företagsekonomiska institutionen, Industriell och Finansiell ekonomi & logistik
Sidor 422-438
Språk en
Länkar doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2018.14432...
Ämnesord Arctic shipping, analytic hierarchy process, route choice, shipping companies, shipping operators, northern sea route, northwest passage, freight markets, term structure, ahp model, regime, protection, management, navigation, emissions, Transportation
Ämneskategorier Transportteknik och logistik

Sammanfattning

As Arctic sea ice shrinks due to global warming, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP) offer a substantial reduction in shipping distance between Asia and the European and North American continents, respectively, when compared to conventional routes through the Suez and Panama Canals. However, Arctic shipping routes have many problems associated with their use. The main objective of this paper is to identify the key criteria that influence the decisions of shipping operators with respect to using Arctic shipping routes. A multi-criteria decision-making methodology, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, is applied to rank four potential categories of criteria (economic', technical', political' and safety' factors) and their sub-criteria.The results of the analysis suggest that, on aggregate, economic' is the most important category of influential factors, followed by safety', technical' and political' factors. The paper concludes, however, that the most influential specific sub-criteria relate to risks that lie mainly within the safety' and political' domains and that, especially in combination, these overwhelm the importance which is attached to economic' factors such as reduced fuel use. Finally, the implications of these findings for the future development of Arctic shipping are addressed at a strategic level.

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