New research links resource stress to violent conflict in borderlands

“My research uses the Ethiopia-Kenya border region as a case study. I examine how two major factors – climate change and the construction of large dams by the Ethiopian government – have impacted the Turkana people in Kenya and the Dassenech people in Ethiopia, contributing to tensions and conflicts between these communities,” says Bizusew Ashagrie.

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The construction of the Gibe cascading dams by the Ethiopian state has significantly altered the Omo River’s flow, which the two communities relied upon for their livelihoods. At the same time, climate change – manifested through rising temperatures and declining rainfall in the area, has impacted the quality and quantity of transboundary rangeland resources, intensifying resource stress in the area.

In his research, Bizusew Ashagrie found that these combined stressors have led the Turkana and Dassenech borderland communities to experience significant declines in flood-retreat agricultural output, fishery yields, and livestock productivity. Traditional adaptation strategies, such as fluid movement between livelihood systems and intense herding mobility, have proven inadequate under these new pressures. Traditional and informal institutional arrangements for resource sharing and conflict resolution have also struggled to cope effectively with the increased stress.

“By examining the socio-ecological process in detail, I was able to identify several key mechanisms that explain how resource stress leads to conflict in the case. These were: worsening livelihood conditions, intra-livelihood mobility pattern disruptions, pastoral mobility pattern disruptions, hardening of resource border narratives, and collapse of inter-group bargaining. Together, these processes have heightened competition and triggered violent conflict between the Turkana and Dassenech communities,” says Bizusew Ashagrie.

In his thesis, he argues that understanding the relationship between resource stress and violent conflict requires a situated and contextualized approach, rather than a broad, systemic one.

“This is because resource stress can result from various socio-natural factors, such as climate change or large-scale development interventions, which take different forms and shapes across diverse contexts,” says Bizusew Ashagrie.

“My case study highlights how different factors interact in ways that cause ripple effects, showing how important it is to consider how they influence each other within the wider research. It also provides new insights on border areas, showing how social, political, cultural, economic, and security conditions in these regions connect with resource stress and violent conflict,” says Bizusew Ashagrie.