The question of Swedish NATO membership has been asked every autumn since 1994 in the national SOM survey. The first 20 years of measurements indicated a stable and negative Swedish NATO opinion, where more people regarded membership in the military alliance as a bad proposal (the blue curve) than a good one (the red curve).
Around 2013, a sort of equilibrium was reached where roughly equal numbers were positive as negative, and an equal number placed themselves in the middle of the response scale. By autumn 2021, the opinion was completely divided. 29 percent thought the proposal for membership was good, 29 percent thought it was a bad proposal.
Historical Shift
However, after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there was a historic shift in opinion. Between 2021 and 2022, the number of positive views towards NATO increased by 35 percentage points, to 64 percent. At the same time, only 14 percent of those surveyed were negative. According to Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson, professor of political science, this is the largest opinion shift from one year to another that the SOM Institute has measured.
For those of you wo reads in Swedish and want to learn more about the study can do so in the chapter Jordskred i svensk Nato-opinion efter Rysslands invasion av Ukraina (Landslide in Swedish NATO Opinion after Russia's Invasion of Ukraine. The chapter is written by Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson and Ulf Bjereld, both professors of political science.
On 21 March, the 2023 national SOM survey will be presented. According to this survey, confidence in NATO as an institution has decreased since autumn 2022. More on this will be discussed during the 2024 national SOM seminar, which is held in Swedish.
By: Daniel Jansson & Ulrika Lundin
