The Political Consequences When Jobs Disappear
Short description
Automation and AI are transforming the labor market. In this project, we examine how political attitudes, participation, and behavior are affected when occupations disappear or are at risk of disappearing. We map which occupations have declined in Sweden since democratization 100 years ago and study the effects on individuals, local communities, and organizations. The project utilizes longitudinal data and interdisciplinary methods from political science, economics, and history. We combine historical censuses, SCB microdata, election data, and text analyses of trade union materials. The aim is to shed light on labor market changes, contribute to public debate, and provide new insights into the interplay between occupations and politics.
Research problem and specific questions
Automation and artificial intelligence have transformed the labor market, and this trend is expected to continue. In this project, we aim to investigate the political implications of dying jobs. Specifically, we are interested in analysing how occupational decline affects political attitudes, political participation, and party choices. The project will describe the death of jobs in Sweden since the country’s democratization more than a century ago. Using a mixed-methods approach, the project will examine the political effects of declining jobs for individuals, localities, and organizations.
Data and method
The project employs a longitudinal and multidisciplinary approach and draws on insights from political science, economics, sociology, and economic and social history. We will combine data from historical censuses and microdata from Statistics Sweden from the early 1900s with survey data from the Swedish National Election Studies, data on local election results, and evidence from publications issued by trade unions and other associations.
Societal relevance and utilisation
Analyzing the political repercussions of declining or dying jobs is highly relevant for several issues currently facing Sweden, including increasing inequalities in the labor market and a polarization of the political arena. By analyzing historical patterns, we will make important contributions to contemporary societal debates and provide new insights into the interplay between jobs and politics.
Plan for project realization
This is a three-year project which will be implemented in several key steps. We will first collect the census data and identify the declining jobs over time as well as the characteristics of the groups of people who are affected by these developments. At the same time, we will digitalize the election survey data. In the second step, we will analyze the data to thoroughly examine the different aspects of the political effects of dying jobs. Last, we will write up the manuscripts and disseminate the results of our project to the academic community through peer-reviewed publications as well as to policymakers and a wider audience through reports.
Researchers
Johannes Lindvall, professor, Department of Political Science, University of Gothenburg (principal investigator).
Orsa Kekezi, researcher, Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University.