Strong volcanic eruptions affect terrestrial wind power potential
Future offshore wind power is expected to play an increasingly important role in decarbonization, especially in Europe. To optimize the potential of wind power, variations in wind speed need to be taken better into account when making projections, according to a new study from the University of Gothenburg.
Variations in wind speed can arise from both natural and human influences. In a new PhD thesis, Cheng Shen takes a closer look at one factor that has not been studied in this context, namely the eruptions of strong tropical volcanoes and their effects on global near-surface wind speed over land.
In his thesis, Cheng Shen focused on how fast the wind blows above the surface of the Earth at a height of about 10 meters above the ground and what implications this has for wind energy potential.
One finding from his study pinpoints the effect on global wind speed after ten large eruptions such as the Tambora volcano. The Indonesian volcano Tambora is best known for a huge eruption that took place in 1815 and measured a seven on the eight-point Volcanic Explosivity Index scale. Results from Cheng Shen’s studies show that the Tambora eruption could lead to approximately nine percent reduction in global wind power potential over land.
– Models used in this study indicate a two-year reduction in global
wind and wind power potential after large volcanic activities. This suggests a vulnerability and that there is a risk of wind power loss globally associated with strong volcanic eruptions, says Cheng Shen.
– In wind simulations, not all climate models are equally good. It is necessary to correct and/or choose the model carefully before making a projection.
The thesis also includes future projections of the potential of offshore wind energy on a warmer planet. With a global warming of 4℃, the potential offshore wind energy could increase by an average of nine percent globally by the end of this century.
– Overall, the results of my thesis underline the need for improved modeling to guide both investments and decision makers, says Cheng Shen.
For more information, please contact: Cheng Shen, Doctor of Philosophy in Natural Science, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, e-mail: cheng.shen@gu.se
BY: JENNY MEYER DANEBACK
"Evaluation and projection of the changes in near-surface wind speed: implication for wind energy potential."
Download the thesis (GUPEA): https://hdl.handle.net/2077/81990
